There are unknown unknowns explained

"There are unknown unknowns" is a phrase from a response United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld gave to a question at a U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) news briefing on February 12, 2002, about the lack of evidence linking the government of Iraq with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups.[1] Rumsfeld stated:

The statement became the subject of much commentary. In The Decision Book (2013), author refers to it as the "Rumsfeld matrix".[2] The statement also features in a 2013 documentary film, The Unknown Known, directed by Errol Morris.[3]

Known unknowns refers to "risks you are aware of, such as canceled flights",[4] whereas unknown unknowns are risks that come from situations that are so unexpected that they would not be considered.

Origins

Rumsfeld's statement brought attention to the concepts of known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns, but these were in common use in US defense procurement by the late 1960s.In a 1968 study sponsored by the Aerospace Industries Association, Hudson Drake from North American Rockwell argued that defence contractors had to solve both known unknowns and "unanticipated unknowns".[5] Also in 1968, Lt. Gen. William B. Bunker noted that when developing complex weapons systems "there are two kinds of technical problems: there are the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns."[6] The usage was common enough for an industry shorthand to have developed where unknown-unknowns were referred to as "unk-unks".[7]

The term was commonly used inside NASA.[8] Rumsfeld cited NASA administrator William Graham in his memoir; he wrote that he had first heard "a variant of the phrase" from Graham when they served together on the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States during the late 1990s.[9] Rumsfeld had previously publicly used the terms himself, stating in a 2000 speech that "There are known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Effective intelligence work must consider them all."[10]

The terms "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" are often used in project management and strategic planning[11] circles.

Contemporary usage is largely consistent with the earliest known usages. For example, the term was used in evidence given to the British Columbia Royal Commission of Inquiry into Uranium Mining in 1979:

The term also appeared in a 1982 New Yorker article on the aerospace industry, which cites the example of metal fatigue, the cause of crashes in de Havilland Comet airliners in the 1950s.[12]

Reaction

Canadian columnist Mark Steyn called it "in fact a brilliant distillation of quite a complex matter".[13] Australian economist and blogger John Quiggin wrote: "Although the language may be tortured, the basic point is both valid and important."[14]

Psychoanalytic philosopher Slavoj Žižek says that beyond these three categories there is a fourth, the unknown known, that which one intentionally refuses to acknowledge that one knows: "If Rumsfeld thinks that the main dangers in the confrontation with Iraq were the 'unknown unknowns', that is, the threats from Saddam whose nature we cannot even suspect, then the Abu Ghraib scandal shows that the main dangers lie in the 'unknown knowns'—the disavowed beliefs, suppositions and obscene practices we pretend not to know about, even though they form the background of our public values."[15]

German sociologists Christopher Daase and Oliver Kessler agreed that the cognitive frame for political practice may be determined by the relationship between "what we know, what we do not know, what we cannot know", but stated that Rumsfeld left out "what we do not like to know".[16]

The event has been used in multiple books to discuss risk assessment.[3] [17]

Rumsfeld named his 2011 autobiography . In an author's note at the start of the book, he expressly acknowledges the source of his memoir's title and mentions a few examples of his statement's prominence.[18] The Unknown Known is the title of Errol Morris's 2013 biographical documentary film about Rumsfeld.[19] In it, Rumsfeld initially defines "unknown knowns" as "the things you think you know, that it turns out you did not", and toward the end of the film he re-defines the term as "things that you know, that you don't know you know".[20]

Rumsfeld's comment earned the 2003 Foot in Mouth Award from the British Plain English Campaign.[21]

Historical context

As alluded to by Rumsfeld in his autobiography, over two millennia ago Socrates considered known unknowns and unknown unknowns.[22] [23] Much later, Thomas Aquinas in his Summa Theologica also emphasized the important difference between recognized ignorance and unconscious ignorance.[24]

Rumsfeld's statement closely parallelled a well-known proverb about knowledge:[25] [26] This has been widely quoted[27] since the 19th century as (for example) an anonymous Persian,[28] [29] Arabic,[30] [31] African,[32] Japanese,[33] Oriental[34] or simply an old[35] proverb, orattributed to authors ranging from Confucius[36] to Bruce Lee.[37] The proverb is actually a close translation (with line order reversed) of al-Khalil ibn Ahmad al-Farahidi's medieval epigram about the "four kinds of men", as reported by Al-Ghazali (1058-1111 CE),[38] [39] which was later echoed in poems by Nasir al-Din al-Tusi[40] and Ibn Yamin.[41]

"Unknown unknowns" were occasionally mentioned in the 1950s and 60s.In 1950, it was noted that sociology research was full of "unknown unknowns".[42] In a 1962 commencement address, Nobel laureate biochemist Melvin Calvin discussed how humanity "must grapple not only with the known and the 'known unknown', but also with the vastness of the 'unknown unknown'."[43]

A related 2x2 grid was created in 1955 by two American psychologists, Joseph Luft and Harrington Ingham in their development of the Johari window, a "graphic model of interpersonal behaviour"[44] that classifies knowledge about your behavior and motivations in terms of whether you or others are aware of those behaviours or motivations. For example, your motivation might be (un)known by you and (un)known by others.Another similar[45] classification scheme is the conscious competence learning model published in 1960, where a person's knowledge and skills are classified according to how (un)conscious and (in)competent they are.[46]

Analytical sciences

The term "known unknowns" has been applied to the identification of chemical substances using analytical chemistry approaches, specifically mass spectrometry. In many cases, an unknown to an investigator that is detected in an experiment is actually known in the chemical literature, a reference database, or an Internet resource. These types of compounds are termed "known unknowns". The term was originally coined by Little et al.[47] and reported a number of times in the literature since then as a general approach.[48] [49] [50] [51]

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Defense.gov News Transcript: DoD News Briefing – Secretary Rumsfeld and Gen. Myers . United States Department of Defense . 2002-02-12 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160406235718/http://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=2636 . 2016-04-06 . dead.
  2. Book: Krogerus, Mikael . The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking . 2012 . W.W. Norton & Co . Roman Tschäppeler, Jenny Piening . 978-0-393-07961-6 . 1st American . New York . 86–87 . English . 738350045.
  3. Book: Girard. John. Girard. JoAnn. A Leader's Guide to Knowledge Management: Drawing on the Past to Enhance Future Performance. February 10, 2014. June 1, 2009 . Business Expert Press. 9781606490198. 55–.
  4. Web site: Project Management Fundamentals. December 14, 2011. October 17, 2015. Lynda.com. Lynda.com/LinkedIN. Biafore. Bonnie.
  5. Book: Poole, Walter S. . History of Acquisition in the Department of Defence, Volume 2, Adapting to Flexible Response 1960-1968 . 2013 . Chapter IV – Innovation: Coping with 'Unanticipated Unknowns' . 95 . https://archive.org/details/adaptingtoflexib0002walt_i6x8/page/95/mode/1up.
  6. The 'Known Unknowns' And The 'Unknown Unknowns' . Armed Force Journal . 1968-12-07 . Andrews . Walter. 106. 15. 14–15 .
  7. For Lockheed, Everything's Coming Up Unk-Unks . Fortune . 1969-08-01 . Meyers . Harald B. . 80 . 2. 76.
  8. Web site: NASA Program Management and Procurement Procedures and Practices: Hearings Before the Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, First Session, June 24, 25, 1981 . 1981 . U.S. Government Printing Office.
  9. Book: Rumsfeld. Donald. Known and Unknown: A Memoir. 2011. Penguin Group. New York. 9781101502495. xiv.
  10. Book: Rumsfeld, Donald H. . Remarks of the Honorable Donald H. Rumsfeld Prepared for delivery, Community Forum Series: The New National Security Environment . Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania . 8 February 2000 . 194–203 . Nominations Before the Senate Armed Services Committee, First Session, 107th Congress . U.S. Government Printing Office. 978-0-16-069297-0 .
  11. Strategy Under Uncertainty. Harvard Business Review. November 1997. Courtney. Hugh. Kirkland. Jane. Viguerie. Patrick. 75. 6. 66–79. 10174798.
  12. .
  13. News: Steyn, Mark . Mark Steyn . Rummy speaks the truth, not gobbledygook . Daily Telegraph . December 9, 2003 . October 30, 2008.
  14. Web site: Quiggin . John . John Quiggin . In Defense of Rumsfeld . johnquiggin.com . 5 January 2024 . February 10, 2004.
  15. Web site: What Rumsfeld Doesn't Know That He Knows About Abu Ghraib . May 21, 2004 . In These Times . lacan.com . Slavoj . Žižek . Slavoj Žižek . February 23, 2009.
  16. Daase . Christopher . Kessler . Oliver . December 2007 . Knowns and Unknowns in the 'War on Terror': Uncertainty and the Political Construction of Danger . Security Dialogue . en . 38 . 4 . 411–434 . 10.1177/0967010607084994 . 145253344 . 0967-0106. subscription .
  17. Book: Neve. Geert de. Luetchford. Peter. Hidden Hands in the Market: Ethnographies of Fair Trade, Ethical Consumption, and Corporate Social Responsibility . February 10, 2014 . 2008 . Emerald Group Publishing . 9781848550582. 252–.
  18. Book: Rumsfeld . Donald . Known and Unknown: A Memoir. 2011. Penguin Group. New York. 9781101502495. xiii.
  19. News: Scott . A. O. . A. O. Scott . 2014-04-02 . Not Giving an Inch in a Battle of Wits and Words; Deciphering Donald H. Rumsfeld in 'The Unknown Known' . April 4, 2014 . The New York Times.
  20. Morris, Errol (Director) (December 13, 2013). The Unknown Known (Motion picture). Los Angeles, CA: The Weinstein Company.
  21. News: Rum remark wins Rumsfeld an award . . 2 December 2003 . 30 September 2012.
  22. Book: Rozell, Daniel J. . Dangerous Science: Science Policy and Risk Analysis for Scientists and Engineers . 2020 . 9781911529897 . Ubiquity Press . 48 .
  23. Book: The SAGE Handbook of Philosophy of Education . March 23, 2010 . 304 . Christine . McCarthy . David . Carr . Richard . Bailey . Robin . Barrow . 9781446206973.
  24. Encyclopedia: Nugent . J.B. . 1967 . Ignorance . New Catholic Encyclopedia . New York . McGraw-Hill Book Company . 2025-03-13.
  25. Book: Pullum, Geoffrey K. . Tom . Sumner . Geoffrey K. Pullum . No foot in mouth . Untidy: The Blogs on Rumsfeld . 28 . 2005. William, James & Co. . Wilsonville, Oregon . https://books.google.com/books?id=ITFxygayVrMC&pg=PA28 . 9781590280478.
  26. Book: Saravanan, R. . Chapter 13: The Rumsfeld Matrix . The Climate Demon: Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction . 200 . 2021 . Cambridge University Press . https://books.google.com/books?id=IGlHEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA200 . 9781009039604 . 10.1017/9781009039604.
  27. Book: Bartlett, John . Familiar Quotations: a collection of passages, phrases, and proverbs traced to their sources in ancient and modern literature . 1955 . 754 . 13 . Little, Brown . Boston.
  28. Book: The Best Loved Poems of the American People . 623 . 1936 . Hazel . Felleman . Garden City Books . Garden City, New York .
  29. Book: The American Citizens Handbook. 371 . 1951 . Joy Elmer . Morgan . National Education Association of the United States .
  30. News: 15 December 1885 . A Knowsy Proverb . 6 . The Globe . Toronto . 19 March 2025.
  31. Book: Burton, Isabel . The Life of Sir Richard F. Burton, K.C.M.G., F.R.G.S. . 1893 . Chapman & Hall . London . 548 . 19 March 2025.
  32. Book: Kimbro, Dennis . Daily Motivations for African-American Success . Random House - Fawcett Books . New York . 1993 . September 4: Sesame Street . 9780449223253 . https://books.google.com/books?id=LhfrupUOQY8C&dq=%22shun+him%22+%C2%A0%22teach+him%22&pg=RA7-PA4.
  33. News: 21 . 6 February 1907 . Presbyterian Standard . Japanese Proverbs . XLVI . 53 . Charlotte, N.C..
  34. Book: Hoult, Elizabeth . 55 . Learning support : a guide for mature students . 2006 . Sage Publications . 9781412902946 .
  35. Margaret Sutton . Driscoe . 22 December 1894 . 27 . 51 . The Days We Live In . 6 . Harper's Bazaar . 19 March 2025.
  36. News: Dixon . Michael . 16 April 1993 . A case of the worst sort of ignorance . 22 . Financial Times . London . 19 March 2025.
  37. 1993 . Fall/Winter . Bruce Lee: A Visit to the Grave . 50 . Grand Royal Magazine . Los Angeles . 19 March 2025.
  38. Book: Al=Ghazali, Muhammad Hamid . arabic . Al-Ghazali . 87–88 . الباب السادس في آفات العلم وبيان علامات علماء الآخرة والعلماء السو . كتاب: إحياء علوم الدين کتاب العلم . June 25, 2013 . https://archive.org/details/KitabAhyaaUloomuddinKitabulIlmLiImamMuhammadHamidAlGhazaliArabicTextBookOfKnowledge/page/n85/mode/2up.
  39. Book: Al-Ghazali, Abu Hamed . Revival of the Religion's Sciences . Mohammad Mahdi . al-Sharif . 2011 . Al-Ghazali . Dar Al-Kotob Al-ilmiyah . Beirut, Lebanon . 115. 978-2-7451-5945-8.
  40. Book: Axworthy, Michael . A history of Iran : empire of the mind . 2008 . Basic Books . New York . 978-0-465-00888-9.
  41. Book: Arberry, A.J. . 315 . Classical Persian Literature . 1958 . George Allen & Unwin Ltd. . London . 9780203985434.
  42. The research project: Its educational value and its contribution to social work knowledge. Social Work Journal. July 1950. Gordon. William E. 31. 3. 110–116. 23705367.
  43. News: University Responding to Challenges . 15 June 1962 . UCLA Summer Bruin . 2.
  44. Book: Luft, Joseph . Of human interaction . 1969 . National Press Book. 978-0-87484-134-3 .
  45. COVID-19: a knowledge and learning perspective . Nicole . Tovstiga . George . Tovstiga . Knowledge Management Research & Practice . 19 . 4 . 2021 . 427–432. 10.1080/14778238.2020.1806749.
  46. Book: 69 . Management of Training Programs . 1960 . DePhillips . Frank A. . Berliner . William M. . Cribbin . James J. . Richard C. Erwin, Inc. . Homewood, Illinois.
  47. Little . J.L. . Cleven . C.D. . Brown . S.D. . 2011 . Identification of "Known Unknowns" utilizing accurate mass data and chemical abstracts service databases . J. Am. Soc. Mass Spectrom. . 22 . 2 . 348–359 . 10.1007/s13361-010-0034-3 . 21472594 . 2011JASMS..22..348L . free .
  48. Identification of "known unknowns" utilizing accurate mass data and ChemSpider . 10.1007/s13361-011-0265-y . 22069037 . 23 . 1 . Journal of the American Society for Mass Spectrometry . 179–185 . 2011 . Little . James L. . free .
  49. Stein . S. . 2012 . Mass Spectral Reference Libraries: An Ever-Expanding Resource for Chemical Identification . Analytical Chemistry . 84 . 17 . 7274–7282 . 10.1021/ac301205z . 22803687 .
  50. Identifying known unknowns using the US EPA's CompTox Chemistry Dashboard . 10.1007/s00216-016-0139-z . 27987027 . 409 . 7 . Analytical and Bioanalytical Chemistry . 1729–1735 . 2016 . McEachran . Andrew D. . Sobus . Jon R. . Williams . Antony J. . 31754962 .
  51. Schymanski . Emma L. . Emma Schymanski . Williams . Antony J. . 2017 . Open Science for Identifying "Known Unknown" Chemicals . Environmental Science and Technology . 51 . 10 . 5357–5359 . 2017EnST...51.5357S . 10.1021/acs.est.7b01908 . 6260822 . 28475325.

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