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By Jo Nova This is not a race we can afford to loseAI may well be a stock investment bubble, but the AI arms race is a hell-for-leather battle where the winner takes it all With AI development on an exponential curve towards self improving models, the nation that gets “there” first may get access to their adversaries encryption codes, crack their firewalls, hack their software, design the better drones, anti-missile weaponry, cure diseases and own the patents the world wants, or create the bioweapons that sabotage crops, generate fuel, or kill or cripple millions of people. That’s assuming AI doesn’t conquer us first. This is why data centres are appearing everywhere and the “clean energy” revolution got left by the wayside. As Scott Bessent said today “There is no day after tomorrow if we lose” “Beating China—there is no day after tomorrow if China wins at this,” Bessent said on Sept. 9 at Breitbart News’s “State of the Economy” event in Washington. “If they were to pull ahead of us on AI, then nothing else matters.” — Arthur Zhang, The Epoch Times Bessent was answering questions about the rising opposition to datacenters in the USA and also thousands of hostile attacks on American AI trying to copy and steal capability. China would be very happy with any protests. Youtube physicist Sabine Hossenfelder was approached by someone wanting to pay her to tell us AI will kill us all. (And maybe it will). But there is one main beneficiary of anti AI sentiment in the West and that’s China. Given the existential battle, China would be crazy if they weren’t pumping money into grassroots protests about AI datacentres in the US. China, though, hardly needs to bother whipping up angst in Australia where our electricity grid has been sold out to the Weather Gods and is cripplingly expensive and underpowered. A few days ago Transgrid, Australia’s largest electricity company wrote to data center management to say the NSW grid was nearly full. There was barely 1.5GW to spare in Sydney. We could have led the world when we had a coal fired grid with spare capacity. Nevermind. The race is here and we’re not in it. China has nearly twice the capacity of coal fired plants that it needs, and we barely have enough. Last month a team created 16 entirely new viruses with the help of AIThese are not viruses you and I could catch, they only infect a bacteria called E.Coli. But if they wanted to make a virus that could infect humans, it could soon be a lot easier and faster than it would have been back in the prehistoric era of say, 2019. This should make anyone sit up and pay attention. ![]() King et al https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aec2657 A virus that infects bacteria is called a bacteriophage. It’s a tiny molecular-machine in the order of 200nm in length that replicates. Once inside a hapless E.Coli, it commandeers the cells machinery to produce hundreds of clones of itself. This one pictured here is one of the 16 new types of virions. It’s a ball of interlocking proteins that protect the DNA in the centre. Figure K (right) that looks like a bowl of spaghetti exploding, shows just one of the interlocking shell proteins up close. Those are a particular string of amino acids that always fold in this exact convoluted shape. AI can predict the shape of the spaghetti lattice from the DNA code. The shape is determined by things like disulphide and hydrogen bonds, and electrical charges. AI can leapfrog over thousands of generations of trial and error evolutionBefore Large Language Models, a research team had to culture real viruses in the laboratory, and they had to do it again and again to generate random mutations. One experiment ran for 13,000 generations and took six months. That team found the virus had accumulated 11 new mutations every 20 days. Then they’d have to test each mutant to see if it behaved the way they hoped, but it was all so random. Now they just ask the AI, which is trained on millions of genomes from all domains of life. It generated and evaluated thousands of different genomes, and narrowed the list to 300. The team synthesized these 300 different viruses in the lab and tested them to find 16 entirely new viable viruses. That’s never been done before. AI doesn’t merely accelerate evolution. It proposed a genome on the other side of an evolutionary gap without nature having to walk through all the intervening generations. In theory, if they dumped these new viruses into people, swamps or chicken pens which had the right E.Coli, they might peter out in a day, infecting a few bacteria and vanishing. But it’s also possible it could eventually spread far and wide — a right nightmare for E.Coli. These new viruses could live on and spread in perpetuity, killing a lot of EColi along the way until the bacterium evolved some resistance, after which the virus would mutate to counter that. I asked one AI if this was correct and it replied at length expanding on it, until seconds later it suddenly deleted its own answer and said “This content can’t be shown”. We’re especially careful with request6s involving biological research and applications that could pose safety risks.” Well that sure makes me feel safe…
The big advantage here was not just the speed with which AI could create mutations, but that these mutations were fundamentally a leap forward in viral evolution that no amount of lab propagation was going to randomly generate. The phage called ΦX174 is only about 5,400 bases long, yet it contains 11 overlapping/interacting genes. The language model being used, called Evo, was trained on DNA as a language. It was trained on nine trillion nucleotides, and it found patterns and combinations that were unknown before. Evo was also specifically not trained on viruses that infect plants, animals, or people, and the safeguard appeared to work. Evo did not perform well on human-virus genomes. But the principle remains — if someone wanted to train an AI on nine trillion bases of mammalian viruses, the data is out there. We now know an AI can design a totally new viral genome. In the next world war, a bad global citizen country could aquire the capability to design viruses and maybe also the drugs or vaccines to save themselves, before unleashing them onto adversaries. The truth is we’ve always had deadly diseases to throw at any enemies — like Smallpox, Ebola, Marberg and Nipah. The thing that stopped us (apart from the morality bomb) is the blowback. Whatever virus is unleashed on the world will come back to hit the instigator too. This is where AI makes it all so much more dangerous. What if some overconfident General thinks his group has a vaccine that will save them? Suddenly the unthinkable becomes a strategy. I would like the pull the pin on AI and just say “stop” — but that isn’t an option. The big news today was that US Intelligence agencies were warning that six Chinese Tech companies have been launching thousands of aggressive and targeted attacks, using more than 20,000 fraudulent accounts, to extract intellectual property from US leading AI systems. “We can’t pause,” Bessent said. “You can’t, because the Chinese won’t pause.”On the same day, the National Security Agency, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, and FBI issued a joint advisory accusing six China-based AI companies of conducting industrial-scale campaigns to extract capabilities from U.S. frontier AI models. The agencies named DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Alibaba, MiniMax, StepFun, and Z.AI, saying the companies had extracted billions of tokens through millions of requests to frontier models including Claude, GPT, Gemini, and Grok since at least late 2024. Knowledge distillation is a machine learning technique in which one model is trained using the outputs of another. The technique is commonly used legitimately, including to develop smaller or less expensive models. The advisory alleged, however, that the six companies engaged in “aggressive, malicious, and targeted” distillation at an industrial scale to extract restricted proprietary functions and capabilities from U.S. models. The NSA said the companies were systematically extracting U.S. model capabilities to train their own systems. Beijing rejected the allegations. The AI arms race is a life and death thing. REFERENCEKing, Samuel, H, et al (2026) Generative design of bacteriophages with genome language model, Science, 6 Aug 2026, Vol 393, Issue 6811 DOI: 10.1126/science.aec2657 ![]() The day the inverter fell off the wall… By Jo Nova In the desperate days of watching a Net Zero target disappear over the event horizon, the Labor Government realized they could entice Australians into buying the home batteries they weren’t going to buy — by ordering up a “30% off sale”. The taxpayer would be slugged for the 30% so the sellers weren’t going to complain. But the government botched the plan, accidentally offering huge rebates on gigantic batteries, and setting off a wave of oversized installations that fed a new industry of “battery cowboys”. Later, realizing they were burning through money, the government announced they would slam on the brakes for May. Whereupon 78,000 people got the urge to install batteries in April. (See the graph below). The average battery installed in April ballooned to 36 kWh. After the government changed the rules in May, it promptly shrank to 23 kWh. Given that the subsidies were worth up to $15,000 per customer on the largest systems (and even more to solar installers) both sides of this fake market had a reason to fudge the rules, stretch the dates and overlook the details. In a normal free market the homeowner presumably would be kinda irate if the installer just stacked the batteries against the wall, didn’t plug them in, and took a photo to claim the government handout. In the land of Socialist Theft, according to the tip offs sent in to the federal watchdog, all’s fair in Love and Subsidies. In one brazen case, the installer didn’t even bother opening the garage, they just stacked the batteries right in front of the roller doors and pretended they were installed there. Who needs wires, eh?
One photo of dodgy wiring obtained by the ABC from the FOI In another report the installers allegedly stacked extra batteries next to a small system so they could pretend it was bigger, claim more credits and get a larger subsidy. The installers took the booster batteries away afterwards. Methinks there could also be other reasons why 76% of people didn’t want to share their batteries and apply to join a Virtual Power Plant scheme. It could be awkward loaning a non-existent or suspiciously small battery to the retail giants to push and pull electricity out of. It might be hard to explain why your 50kW battery behaved just like a 20kW one? In the most extreme example an installer is said to have returned two months later to try to take the batteries back that the customer had paid for. Perhaps the installer just mixed up their real clients from their fake ones? The government created this boom, and the bust, and fed the corruption that went with itThis would not happen in a free market… and nor would most of the rorts above. Some 530,000 batteries have been installed (at least in theory). Who really knows, since officials have only inspected 3,600 of them? There were many ways to cheat: If the installer couldn’t find a qualified electrician because of the boom, they could phone a friend, pay them cash, and ask the qualified guy to tick it off later. This is not legit, but what could possibly go wrong, apart from a house burning down, or child being electrocuted? Without real customers, there’s almost no one there to spot the taxpayer being ripped off. To its credit, the ABC obtained the allegations of fraud through an FOI to the government. Whistleblowers accuse solar battery installers of fraud, misconduct in federal rebate scheme— Michael Atkin and Lucy Kent, ABC News In short: Allegations of fraud and misconduct have been revealed in tip-offs sent to the federal watchdog overseeing the Cheaper Home Batteries Program. The untested claims were obtained by the ABC through a Freedom of Information request. Shadow Minister for Energy Dan Tehan is calling for an independent Senate inquiry into the revelations. The Smart Energy Council said dodgy installers should be ‘named, shamed and punished’, but it said statistics showed few were: “Of the 530,000 batteries installed in Australia in just over a year — more than the entirety of the United States — just 17 are being formally investigated for legal compliance by the Clean Energy Regulator.” The problem with this is that if some homeowners were in-on-the-game of pretending their small battery was a big one, they’re not going to report it are they? And if they got the big subsidy, but their battery was really installed later in May by an unqualified guy, who are they to complain? Since the officials have only inspected about 3,600 batteries, they haven’t inspected around 526,000 batteries.
The FOI documents included pictures of a poorly-finished job. (Supplied to the ABC) Fake markets breed corruption. If there were homeowners cheating on the scheme, they probably felt like they were only trying to get what the Joneses got across the road, and it would have been unfair to miss out. Which is true, but that’s always the problem with Big Government Gifts isn’t it? We can’t all have a free lunch — only the rich best friends of Big Government can.
*Caption correction: The day the
The wonderful Ian Plimer will be speaking at the Mannum Club, South Australia, on Sunday at 1pm. “Earth Climate and The Evidence”An afternoon with Ian Plimer is limited to 100 tickets. Bookings essential.
Thanks to a tip from a reader. I tried to email them back, but it bounced. 🙁 ____________________ *I’d like to help readers connect up with other skeptics, so perhaps we need a regular events list? Please post EVENTS in comments, and if anyone wants to organize a coffee, a dinner or just a Friday night happy hour in your area, I’m happy to spread the word. (Please use the word EVENTS in comments so they are easy to search for).
![]() Chris Bowen, Photo by Crawford Forum, 2016 By Jo Nova Coal is the most unreliable energy and other fairy talesLord help us all. Chris Bowen — Minister of Storms in 2100 and coincidentally in charge of our national energy, could have given some straight up answers, instead he shared some fairytales, and made absurd contradictions spiced with inane cliches. Four years after taking charge he’s still blaming the Coalition and the Russians for everything. Kieran Gilbert, at News24, interviewed Chris Bowen but let him get away with a full Snow White fable. The “most unreliable part of our energy system is coal” the Minister said, apparently unaware that wind turbines fail every week and solar generators fail every day. Unfortunately Gilbert missed the chance to let him know, and Chris Bowen dug himself in further: Mr Canavan would have a lot more of it [coal] if he had a choice. And what that would see is increased unreliability, increased prices because when coal goes down, bills go up. At which point Mr Gilbert could have asked, so if the prices rise when coal plants stop, you’re saying the grid is cheaper when the coal plants are running? And your goal is to shut the coal plants down…? Thing is, coal is easily the cheapest source of energy on the Australian grid if we rule out the subsidized “fake” bidders. (Just check the last AEMO Quarterly report where brown coal was still winning bids at $27/MWh). Which is why, presumably, China built a monster 78 gigawatts of brand new coal power last year, because it is unreliable and expensive, right?
AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics (QED) Q2, 2026 As for reliability, we know coal plants are like cars, and if you keep fixing them, they can keep running. The Hazelwood power plant was still running at nearly 90% capacity in the last days before it closed at the age of 53. Though we’re driving the current coal fleet into the ground with frequent stops and starts to accommodate the most unreliable generators on the grid, which are solar and wind power. Though to be fair, if we had tidal or wave generators they’d be worse. Kindergarten Energy LessonsThe core of Chris Bowen’s reasoning is that while the opposition want to use all our energy sources,“Australia is the best renewable country in the world and we want to use that to create energy abundance “. Australia may have a lot of sunlight and wind, but we also have the largest uranium resources on Earth, the second largest supply of brown coal, and the fourth largest of black coal. We’re also the third largest exporter of liquid natural gas. Chris Bowen thinks energy will be cheaper if we ban uranium and coal. Unfortunately these are concentrated high-density sources of energy that every country wants to buy, but wind and solar are low-density sparse energy sources that require kilotons of carbon fibre at least 6,000 kilometers of high voltage lines, and thousands of square kilometers of farmland, national park, and wilderness. Not to mention all the rare earths and heavy metals, some dug up by child labor in the Congo or with slave labor in China. And they kill birds. What’s not to like, apart from everything? “…there’s been no small module reactor built anywhere in the Western world.”When asked why Australia won’t lift the ban on nuclear power, Chris Bowen had to reach back 40 years to find a pointless anecdote about an opposition minister who said small modular reactors were about to happen. “ And here we are 40 years later,” says Chris Bowen smugly, “and it hasn’t happened. And there’s been no small module reactor built anywhere in the Western world.” Which shows how delusional and out of date he is. The Russians and Chinese have not only made small modular reactors above ground, but the UK, US and the French have made 270 of them that travel in the oceans in waterproof boxes. The US Navy built the first nuclear attack submarine in 1955. Two months ago, the US got four completely new small modular reactor prototypes working. One designed by an Australian, Bobby Gallagher, was built in just 150 days. All four designs came together in a year, egged on by Donald Trump, which suggests that we could have built a small modular reactor on dry land any time in the last 40 years but no one tried. The whole conversation is patently absurd. The opposition minister 40 years ago was more up to date in the 1980s than Chris Bowen is today. And earlier in the interview when asked about the high prices of renewables Bowen claimed “We’re starting to turn the corner” which sounds a lot like his claims that small modular nuclear is always just around the corner. So he’s wrong about both, the only difference is he’s been wrong about the nuclear ones since before he was even born. Who paid for that?Whenever Chris Bowen brags about something being cheaper, people need to drill into where the money came from: Here’s him bragging: “460,000 households now have a cheaper home battery, that’s a program the coalition would scrap.” A wise inquirer might reply, “hallelujah”. “The batteries weren’t actually cheaper were they, they were the same total cost, but other people were forced to pay part of the bill. And who paid for that? How much has that program cost taxpayers so far?” And “Wouldn’t it be fairer to add the cost of all those batteries and the subsidies onto calculations of what Australian wind and solar power actually costs, since coal, gas and hydro plants don’t need the batteries do they?” Australians paid (at least) $23 billion more for electricity since the Labor Government took powerGilbert pointed out that Angus Taylor claims “Australians have been slugged $23 billion extra… over the last four years since the Government promised bills had come down.” Bowen replied that bills were too high but it was a bit rich coming from Angus who “changed the law to hide in the most disgraceful act of an energy minister in living energy. He knew that prices were going up 20 per cent. He didn’t want to tell the Australian people that before the 2022 election so he changed the law to hide it so it was released weeks after the election, not days before.” Which is a bit rich coming from Chris Bowen who was supposed to update Australia’s Net Zero target for the Paris Agreement by February 2025 just before the election. He broke the Paris agreement and delayed that announcement of a massive increase until a few months after the election. Poll shows 83% of Australians didn’t want higher emissions targets, but the Labor Party did it anyway. Far more disgraceful than delaying the notice of electricity price rises is hiding an economy-wide policy that the Labor Party didn’t need to bring in, and chose to hide from the voters.
I don’t recommend watching it, but if you do, look out for weasel non-answers like: We’re seeing downward pressure on prices (but not actually cheaper prices). Chris Bowen interviewed by Kieran Gilbert, News24
If only Chris Bowen had some answers he wouldn’t need a Ministry of Misinformation to attack critics
Dear Chris Bowen, it’s time for some public debates, not for a Ministry of MisinformationThe rise of One Nation has spooked the Government. A large section of the public hates their policy. But like any true socialist they won’t wonder if it’s because it’s a stupid plan, they’ll play the victim and attack the unbelievers. Climate Change Authority has released Misinformation: A climate policy risk,which is just an excuse to attack those who doubt with snide allegations about their mysterious funding. It’s the same old ad hominem attack with bonus excuses for Mr Bowen’s failure to win over the voters. See, the reason he struggles is not because his plan is crazy, but because the critics are “well resourced actors” with “unclear funding resources”, unlike Mr Bowen, a poor nobody who is only the Australian Minister of Weather and Energy Control, protected by Parliamentary Privilege, supported by billion dollar agencies like the ABC, CSIRO, AEMO, and ANU, not to mention the BOM and AER. None of which has ever asked him a single hard question in public. Supposedly the Climate Change Authority want to support a “healthy information ecosystem.”. Except if the skeptics are so wrong, and the evidence is overwhelming all Chris Bowen has to do is debate the unbelievers in public and the people of Australia will figure it out, yes? That’s what a healthy information ecosystem looks like. But Bowen knows he can’t win an open debate — not when it took Australia decades to build 24GW of coal plants, which we’re hell bent on shutting down, yet China built 78 gigawatts of advanced Ultra-supercritical coal plants last year. We’re spending hundreds of billions to close every last plant, while they’re building our entire national coal fleet every four months and pretending they’re going to start cutting emissions any day now. Chris Bowen runs scared from a public debate because:
…and I’m just getting started. The document is full of misinformation itself like “Misinformation narratives now focus on disruption, not denial”. When skeptics never denied anything in the first place, except that Mr Bowen, God of Nothing, might be able to control the climate through our power plants. And then there is ‘Malinformation’
I’ll just get out the Intent-o-mometer gauge then, so we can figure out who is telling the truth because they think it should be told, and who secretly wants to fool everyone by … sharing inconvenient truths. Defining misinformation For this paper, ‘misinformation’ is used as an umbrella term for misinformation (unintentionally false), disinformation (intentionally false) and malinformation (true information used with the intent to mislead).2 We have chosen misinformation as it is in common use. Experts often distinguish between the different terms. While freedom of expression and debate are fundamental to democracy, these forms of information disorder can undermine informed public discussion and confidence in climate and energy policy. And there it is. Even the truth can be misinformation. Black is white. Up is down. Freedom is slavery. The Australian has exposed it nicely: Government launches ‘misinformation’ unit as climate body faces ‘stealth tax’ backlash. Reneweconomy responded with the usual scoffing indignation, pretending the government was struggling to have a say and the big naughty Murdoch funded NewsCorp was part of the problem because it printed some skeptical articles, not that Peter Hannan had time to explain in his long article where any of the skeptics were wrong. Chris Bowen has the entire Commonwealth apparatus behind him. He has departments, agencies, universities, broadcasters, consultants, modellers and taxpayer-funded experts, and the climate propaganda has been running for 30 years, yet here we are again, with them blaming “communication” problems, because the voters don’t want what the government is selling. (PS: To the Climate Change Authority, how do you know the skeptics are well resourced if you don’t know their funding sources — it’s like everything else in the climate debate, just made up?)
![]() Image by emely krause from Pixabay By Jo Nova Net Zero makes our grids fragileAustralians may not be aware but Iranian hackers managed to knock out a UK power plant in July and it took four days to get it restarted. But there’s no need to worry. The UK power plant was so small and the event so minor that the UK government took weeks to announce it and still won’t tell us the name of the plant. But it was absolutely no threat to the UK grid. None at all. It was just a “small scale generator” which means it could have been a wind turbine, I guess, but newspapers referred to it having “staff” and Clark Savage at EnergyNewsBeat calls it a “peaker” plant. Nothing to see here right? If it was Iran, and it was fishing to see what it could do, the experiment worked. The attack was apparently in response to the UK giving permission for the US to launch attacks on Tehran from UK bases. There were also cyber attacks on the US at the same time involving water pumps that triggered “boil water” notices. While none of these caused immediate harm, it shows that hacker wars are upon us, and we probably don’t want to have a fragile grid dependent on the winds and clouds, long transmission lines, and a million inverters made by a hostile adversary known to put rogue communication devices in it’s solar panel inverters. Not to mention the home battery explosives. Australia has half a million of those now thanks to the Cheaper Home Bomb-Making Scheme. As we said at the time, it’s easy to vet and check every tiny part of one huge centralized plant. Every person entering the plant can be checked and cleared. But it’s impossible to inspect 4 million roof top inverters brought in by 500 companies through 8 different ports and from 20 different factories. The distributed Net Zero system deliberately creates millions of electronically controlled endpoints which also including EV chargers, smart meters, VPP battery controllers and state controlled air-conditioners — many remotely upgradeable and many ultimately communicating through networks. This is not a case of having four million new random points of failure, it’s a more that we have 4 million devices (maybe 10 million) with a systematic vulnerability that’s exploitable. Iranian hackers ‘shut down British power plant for four days’ in unprecedented cyber attack— Daily Mail UK Iranian hackers shut down a UK power plant for four days in an unprecedented cyber attack on Britain, it has been revealed. Cyber terrorists forced the facility to be completely closed down while staff battled to bring systems back online. Officials have not revealed which power plant was targeted, but it is understood to be relatively small – and the attack did not have any significant impact on the nation’s energy supplies. Suspected Iran-linked cyber attacks have also struck water systems in a dozen states, including Michigan, Minnesota, Georgia, New Jersey and South Dakota, sources told CBS News, with more than 30 community systems breached in Minnesota alone. Kathryn Porter points how how easy it would be to knock out the UK ‘Net Zero’ grid in a catastrophic attack. As we saw in Spain last year, and in South Australia in 2016, grids that don’t have lots of inertia can fall over in a few hundredths of a second when things start to go wrong. And nothing says “inertia” better than a turbine that weighs 500 tons and spins 3,000 time a minute. The spinning giant coal, gas, nuclear and hydro turbines absorb the frequency shocks in both directions buying valuable seconds for the rest of the grid to shift in response. Porter points out that batteries can only save the day for a short while and only if they happen to be charged if a generator trips, or uncharged if a large load disappears. It will be difficult to prepare for both contingencies and all of the time. The National Grid collapses, Britain goes dark… chaos is unleashed: Nightmare scenario that Britain’s Net Zero obsession is pushing us ever closer to, by energy expert— KATHRYN PORTER, Daily MailImagine this. At 8.37pm tonight, as one section of the national grid is hit by a sharp imbalance between electricity supply and demand, the entire network starts to go down. One piece topples the next, like dominoes. The country goes dark. The lights switch off in every home and business. Airports, hospitals and other essential utilities scramble to switch to back-up generators. Trains and lifts judder to a halt. Mobile phone transmitter towers switch to battery and back-up power, but networks rapidly become congested and coverage progressively deteriorates. With roads blocked and petrol stations unable to supply fuel because the pumps need electricity, thousands of drivers are stranded, spending the night in their cars or at the roadside, many without water, unable to tell loved ones what is happening. By morning, the streets are crowded with people demanding to know what’s going on. The absence of internet, wifi and reliable phone signals stokes the confusion. Sporadic rioting breaks out, forcing the government to consider deploying the Army. And this is just the first 12 hours. She goes into detail about recent event in UK where summer spikes in demand led to an evening of chaos as solar power cut out, the wind stilled, and several gas fired stations suffered an unexpected outage. The UK grid managers had to suddenly dump exports to both the Netherlands and France. They were not prepared, and the grid didn’t cope without crisis intervention, and as far as we know, that was not a hack attack, just a warm summer’s day. Australia is in a similar position to the UK, increasingly dependent on fickle unreliable equipment which needs complicated back up systems, all of which is controlled by a multitude of electronics made by a nation that is happy to sabotage trading partners when it sees fit. We’re talking about a nation happy to fly out infectious bioweapons to the world, while it locked them down at home. The UK, unlike Australia, doesn’t have as much of a solar panel and battery risk, but is increasingly dependent on subsea cables to Norway and France to bring in about a sixth of its power — both of which are struggling to supply their own national grids. And China has been caught cutting cables repeatedly around Taiwan, and is probably doing the same in the Baltic Sea. Suspiciously, two subsea cables were damaged off Perth a few weeks ago, one after the other and in close proximity. These were information cables, not carrying electrical power, but none-the-less, it highlights the risk of relying on countries playing nice on the ocean floor. h/t John Connor II
By Jo Nova
The World’s Largest Renewable Energy Proposal was planned for the best place on Earth (for renewables) but it still can’t make any numbers add up.The Australian Renewable Energy Hub (AREH) was a glorious $55 billion dream that was going to cover 6,500 square kilometres with 1,700 wind turbines and 11,000 megawatts of solar panels. In theory it would produce 26 gigawatts of power — which is as much as the Australian national electricity grid does on average, and that serves 23 million people.* The site was like God’s gift to renewables — a vast empty plain in a first world country, near the equator, with a soft socialist government and with more hours of sunshine per year than most places on Earth. If Mega-renewables can’t make it here, they can’t make it anywhere. But the big plan has suddenly shrunk to nearly half its peak size. In the original fantasy it was called the Asian Renewable Energy Hub because it was supposed to pump electricity via a giant undersea cable to Jakarta or Singapore. When that plan fell in a hole, it was reinvented as a Green Hydrogen and Ammonia plant that would export these wonder-fuels to Asia by ship. Part of the dream was to power up 14GW of electrolyzers to smash apart the water molecules and make hydrogen, except there aren’t any water molecules there, so they would have to bring them in from the Indian ocean and desalinate them first. Just a minor hitch. But together that would release the hydrogen miracle, which would then create the wonder of ammonia, which would be used, henceforth, to create the biblical “Green Steel”. It was a product everyone wanted, but no one wanted to pay for. The project in the vast arid-lands of Western Australia was so ambitious they were going to have to build a whole new small town on the coast, with its own desalination plant — because rainfall is so low. “We need to have lakes” the project manager said. Sure. Unfortunately the same thing that makes a site perfect for solar power is exactly the reason that almost no one wants to live there, it’s baking hot, waterless, barely inhabited and thus “available” for acres of solar panels. (Everything that makes it good for solar and wind power makes it horrible for the economics of collecting all that “free” energy). Let’s just say wages need to be high. The sun is cheap in the Pilbara, but telecoms, food, water, air conditioning, houses, and lakes are not. Nor are 5,000 kilometer subsea cables, or 1,000 miles of transmission lines to major population centers. BP abandoned the project a year ago, following in the footsteps of Vestas, Macquarie and others that had abandoned it before BP did. In January our government gave it $22 million to study how to make hydrogen projects work in the Pilbara. Pfft, went that cash. Now the owners have downgraded the 26GW venture back to a 15GW project that was approved in 2020. Forget the big export plans, now they just hope to power, you guessed it, some miners and data-centers in Port Hedland with a small 1 GW starter. Ammonia, may or may not be produced closer to Port Hedland. Australian Renewable Energy Hub’s $50b plan shrinks— by Peter Milne, Boiling Cold The size of Australia’s largest renewable energy project has been cut by nearly half, and the remote Pilbara site will no longer produce ammonia from green hydrogen. The company spokeswoman said the project strategy subsequently evolved toward supplying renewable electricity and hydrogen to support industry in the Pilbara, including green iron, mining decarbonisation and critical minerals processing. There is still just that small detail about needing 550 km of high voltage power lines to reach the customers: To succeed, the project needs the Pilbara Green Link to connect AREH and the Pilbara power network with 550km of high-voltage 330kV transmission lines. Perry Williams and Nick Evans in The Australian explain that BP abandoned it because customers just weren’t willing to pay: Intercontinental Energy and CWP Global’s Australian Renewable Energy Hub scales back hydrogenBP later revealed its decision to depart the Hub was sealed by the reluctance of future customers to back up their support for green power with financial commitments. The oil major’s country president Lucy Nation said at the time its most likely customers — widely understood to include large iron ore miners operating in the Pilbara and countries such as Japan — had significantly delayed plans to commit to long-term offtake agreements. And Chris Bowen’s Big Hydrogen plan has reached 0.2% of it’s target! Released in 2024 by Energy Minister Chris Bowen, the National Hydrogen Strategy set out the government’s ambition to boost production of renewable-generated hydrogen at a competitive cost, setting a target of 500,000 tonnes by 2030. However, federal bureaucrats in May confirmed that domestic production levels were currently 1100 tonnes – amounting to 0.2 per cent of the target. This was once a giant flagship proposal that pulled in not just BP but InterContinental Energy, CWP Global, and Macquaries Green Investment Group. Scores of engineers and entrepeneurs must have tried to make the numbers work as they chased the solar-wind-hydrogen fairy hob goblin. Yet here we are again, like an impossible Escher puzzle. The illusion of “free energy” beguiles the human brain but the cost of collecting, storing and transporting the invisible fire fools us every time. We just have to find an empty first world desert near the equator and 10 million people, and an endlessly replenishing hydroelectricity dam and it will all be perfect. ___________________ *The NEM serves 23 million people, but not Western Australians or Northern Territorians.
By Jo Nova We’re from the Government and we’re here to help you reduce your quality of life…The government screwed up the electricity grid and wants the poor to rearrange their lives to suit the grid to make the mess less noticeable. The geniuses filled the gird with unreliable generators because they were told by experts that they might stop storms in a hundred years or cool the world by 0.001°C. So now we now have a fashionable grid that is massively oversupplied at lunchtime and undersupplied at dinner time. It’s also very expensive. Who knew controlling the cumulonimbus would cost a lot? I mean, really? This mismanagement has raised the price of electricity, which forced some of the poor onto hardship plans because they are struggling to pay the bills. The government solution is not to make the grid more reliable and cheap again, but to ask the poor to give up using things like the oven, air-conditioning, heater, dryer and stove from 3pm to 9pm, so that the grid doesn’t break. The bureaucrats hope that the poor can rearrange their day to suck up some of the solar overload at lunchtime. The new fee structure on offer will charge them more than six times the price for cooking a roast at dinner time rather than noon. Likewise with washing and drying clothes, heating water or heating the house. Those poor workers doing the 7am to 4pm shift will just need to stay up late to wash clothes. But who needs sleep right? These people will be the living Negawatts of the grid — a negative watt — or a unit of electrical power saved. And who wants to invite friends and family over for a hot meal in the evening anyway? It’s just a few less family birthday parties for poor kids after school. Welcome to your renewables future! Big Government made sure that rich people got help from the poor to pay for their solar panels and batteries, so they can throw parties any night of the week but the poor just get a ‘smart-meter’ to inspire them to give up electricity at the time of day when everyone wants to use it. Apparently this is what passes for a cost-of-living policy now: rather than designing the electricity system around the lives of Australians, Australians are being encouraged to redesign their lives around the electricity system. “Smart switch:” Retailer tests time-of-use plans in bid to slash bills of hardship customers— By Joshua S Hill, Reneweconomy Western Australia state-owned utility Synergy has this week launched a pilot program for 5,000 households that is designed to help customers better understand their energy habits and reduce their power bills by switching to a time-of-use plan that would shift consumption use to off-peak periods. Designed specifically with a focus to help households experiencing financial pressures, the pilot will provide customers with an estimate of their potential electricity bill savings over a 12-month period. They just want to help you (become a Demand Management tool for their sick grid): Synergy says that it has already identified up to 5,000 customers for the pilot who may benefit by switching from Synergy’s default A1 flat rate plan to Midday Saver, a time-of-use plan that offers lower electricity rates from 9am to 3pm and 9pm to 9am, encouraging customers to shift energy use to off-peak times. “We want to help households understand their energy plans and make choices that can save money,” said Amber-Jade Sanderson, Western Australia’s minister for energy and decarbonisation. “This initiative is a real opportunity for WA households to review their energy plans and usage and see if there are savings that can be made. Essentially, the government will give them a slight discount on an exorbitant bill, if they give up things most people in the rich West take for granted. The plan offers three different time periods with different electricity charges for your electricity use: Super Off Peak between 9am to 3pm, Peak between 3pm to 9pm, and Off Peak between 9pm and 9am. And the cost differences are dramatic: the cost per unit of electricity for Super Off Peak is 8.8520 cents, as compared to 55.3253 cents per unit during Peak and 24.3431 cents per unit during Off Peak. The new spy meters are called Smart-Switch so we know they are stupid. It’s helpful the way government committees always name things the exact opposite of what they are. This is bound to suit unemployed people, and childless night shift workers. They can always have barbeques outside to entertain guests as long as it’s not raining or a total fire ban. Cheap electricity turns out to be good for mental health, social lives, hot baths and clean clothes. What else do we have to give up to appease the weather gods? For Australians the future is bleak,
The most popular subsidized home battery shuts off at zero degreesAt least one poor sod who paid to install a big battery found his electricity bill went up this winter compared to last year. And he won’t be the only one. The most popular battery sold in the rush to take part in the artificial “Cheaper Home Battery” bonanza was a Chinese Fox ESS battery that may have been cheaper if it didn’t have a heater and thus it would stop charging below zero to protect the battery. The poor sod, Rob Westaway, says he had to pay $250 for a thermal blanket for his battery, which slightly increases the risk of overheating. But oh boy — he has to pay an installer $350 or more to come and install it before winter and then pay him again to come and take it away for spring. Thar’ blows quite a lot of the savings… Now that winter is becoming the key test for the Australian grid, it may also blow some of the big battery buffer Chris Bowen was counting on too. At least one energy analyst says it potentially increases the system wide risk, given that it was the most popular battery. So “thanks” to a Big Government bubble Australians may have spent billions of dollars installing batteries that were up to five times too big for their homes, are mostly not available to the grid managers to use, were badly installed, and may not be operating on cold nights. Now we just need a few house fires to light the candles on this Soviet-Electricity-Cake. The Australian has the story. Winter home battery fail could increase ‘system-wide risk’— By Noah Yim, The Australian Widespread rollout of batteries under Labor’s scheme unable to cope with cold temperatures could create system-wide risk, said MST Financial senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic. “The scheme’s incentive structure favouring the cheapest possible capacity may risk increasing system-wide risks during unusually cold periods,” Mr Kavonic said. Rob Westaway in East Bowral, in southern NSW, is one among many who have bought and paid to install a space blanket-like hood over his Fox ESS EQ4800 battery in a bid to keep it insulated during winter. Mr Westaway said he recognised this posed a new overheating risk but his energy bills were higher this winter – after he had installed the battery – than in the winter prior when he just had solar panels. “The battery itself, when it’s working in summertime, it’s done its job – it’s great,” Mr Westaway said. “But in winter, it’s worse – there’s money going out – if this keeps up, we’re going to have to move because we just can’t fund this.” A spokesman for Foxx ESS said this was perfectly normal behaviour and the battery was designed to work this way. (Don’t you feel so much better?) If only people hadn’t been scrambling to take part in a government induced gold rush with a sharp deadline and a budget that was blown clear through the roof (from $2b up to $8b). Sub zero temperatures will affect people in Canberra and any of the high country in Victoria and NSW as well as Tasmania. On SolarQuotes they explain why charging at zero degrees may cause permanent damage to a battery: You Don’t Want Your Battery Chillin’Solar Quotes Lithium batteries don’t cope well with extreme cold. Down to minus 20°C you may be able to discharge them, (at a lower than normal rate) but the recharge rate will die from exposure once you get close to freezing. As a battery owner this hurts your back pocket because winter days are often cloudy and always short. When the sun does shine on a cold morning, you need to grab all the energy you can and stuff it into the battery quickly. Geez It’s FreezingOpinions vary a little, but generally charging lithium batteries below 0°C must be avoided. When cold, lithium ions can’t properly intercalate into the anode and instead plate onto the surface as metallic lithium. This lithium plating is irreversible, causing permanent capacity loss. When pushed further, dendrites can form in the battery. These tiny needle-like structures can grow enough to pierce the separator and cause an internal short circuit, rendering the cell useless or setting it on fire.
This is why batteries either need a heater to keep them above zero, or they need a cut off mechanism that stops them charging in the danger zone… LenEnergy points out that winter charging in a cold Australian place can be less than half the energy levels of summer charging. Of course the biggest system wide risk might be some cyber hacking — What if a foreign hacker could turn home batteries into “pager-bombs” but 7,500 times bigger?
Thanks to Rodger for the tip.
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