2ND SUNDAY UPDATE, writethru after 8:14AM post: With an estimated $2,188.7M global through Sunday, Disney/Marvel‘s Avengers: Endgame has sailed past Titanic to become the No. 2 movie ever worldwide. The same goes for overseas where Endgame is also now No. 2 with a running cume of $1.569B. That’s after grossing a further $282.2M at the international box office in the sophomore session. Both globally and offshore, Endgame is still led by only Avatar.
We earlier noted that Endgame was on its way to passing $2B global through Saturday, becoming only the fifth movie ever to hit that lofty benchmark (and Disney’s third). The 22nd MCU pic is now the fastest ever to the milestone — in just 11 days. Avatar, the previous record holder, did it in 47. With the Sunday estimates, there is now about $459M separating Endgame from Avatar overseas and roughly $600M worldwide.
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When comping the FSS weekend overseas, Endgame dropped by 55% from the record-smashing debut last session. This is a stronger hold than the second weekends of Avengers: Infinity War (-61%) and Captain America: Civil War (-59%).
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Endgame pulled off a massive feat over the past two frames, and the 55% sophomore weekend drop internationally is better than what was expected to be closer to 60%-65%. While Tony Stark is King of the World in terms of beating Titanic, he’s not quite King of the Box Office just yet — but he’s getting closer. We’re hearing next weekend’s dip may not be too steep given this weekend’s hold was better than anticipated, especially coming off such a massive opening session. Although Detective Pikachu could act as a drag in Asia and more, the Avengers, Guardians et al have a fairly clear runway to Memorial Day. The midweeks this week, which don’t come with the boost of last week’s May Day holiday or China’s extended break (though the UK has a day off on Monday as does France on Wednesday), will provide insight into whether, or perhaps when, they take down Avatar.
Turning back to the current session, Endgame held the No. 1 spot in all international markets save Japan. It continues to be led by China with $576M through Sunday and after becoming the top Hollywood film ever there during last week’s lucrative extended holiday. Maoyan has been up and down all week in predicting final numbers for the Middle Kingdom, today landing on RMB 4.13M ($613M). In India, Endgame is also the highest grossing studio movie ever, at $52M to date.
The throne of biggest all-time industry release has also been ascended by the Avengers in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Egypt, Ethiopia, Middle East Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, UAE, Mexico, Colombia, Central America and Paraguay.
One area where Endgame has already overtaken Avatar is in international IMAX. The offshore gross in the format is now $120.8M, to top the Na’vi and become IMAX’s biggest overseas release ever. Of that, $72M is from China where Endgame is also IMAX’s top title of all time. Picking up $36.7M globally this session, IMAX had its best-ever second weekend result. The worldwide cume now stands at $170M, overtaking Infinity War.
In other milestones, Endgame is within a day of generating over $1B in 3D ticket sales worldwide. It is the quickest to the mark and only the third title in history to get there, after Avatar and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. To date, approximately 45% ($979M) of the film’s global cume is from 3D, per RealD.
CJ 4DPLEX also reports that its 4DX theaters have now grossed over $25M from 635 global locations showing Endgame for a 32% increase on Infinity War.
Contrary to domestic, there were no major wide releases looking to counterprogram versus Thanos internationally this weekend. Lionsgate’s Long Shot, however, notably released in the UK where it landed at No. 2 with $1M after stars Charlize Theron and Seth Rogen stopped on Graham Norton’s couch for a chat. Holdovers like Warner Bros’ The Curse Of La Llorona and Shazam! continued play. The former crossed $100M globally, and Universal’s Us topped $250M worldwide during the week. Next weekend, Warner Bros rolls out Legendary’s Pokemon Detective Pikachu in several majors including China, the UK, Germany, Italy and Brazil.
More detail and updated cumes on this week’s other pics are below.
HOLDOVERS/EXPANSIONS
AVENGERS: ENDGAME
Russia was the last market to the party, opening this past Monday and setting a record launch of $32.6M through seven days. Locally, Endgame is already the No. 6 movie of all time and was the quickest to the 2B Rbl mark.
Overall, Endgame’s first two frames have seen it best Infinity War’s lifetime in such Asia markets as China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand. In EMEA, the same can be said for Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Iraq, Italy, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Middle East, Netherlands, Norway, Oman, Poland, Qatar, Serbia, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, UAE and Ukraine. In Latin America, it’s passed IW in Mexico, Colombia, Central America and Paraguay.
Holds across Asia-Pacific were in the 40%s while the same goes for big Euro markets. In the Netherlands, the drop was just 23%.
The regional cume in Asia-Pacific is $966M as Endgame approaches $1B there. Europe has $403M and Lat Am is just crossing $200M.
The Top 10 markets through Sunday are as follows: China ($575.8M), UK ($89.9M), Korea ($82.1M), Mexico ($61.6M), Brazil ($56.3M), India ($51.8M), Germany ($47.4M), Australia ($46.2M), France ($43.1M) and Japan ($34.4M).
MISC UPDATED CUMES/NOTABLE
The Curse Of La Llorona (WB): $5.8M intl weekend (77 markets); $55.4M intl cume
Wonder Park (PAR): $4.7M intl weekend (44 markets); $66.7M intl cume
Dumbo (DIS): $4M intl weekend (34 markets); $229M intl cume
*Long Shot (LG): $3.3M intl weekend (22 markets); $3.3M intl cume
Shazam! (WB): $2.3M intl weekend (80 markets); $220.4M intl cume
Pet Sematary (PAR): $1.5M intl weekend (37 markets); $51.9M intl cume
Us (UNI):: $1.2M intl weekend (28 markets); $78M intl cume
Captain Marvel (DIS): $1.2M intl weekend (30 markets); $699.3M intl cume
Little (UNI): $400K intl weekend (13 markets); $7.5M intl cume
Fighting With My Family (UNI): $300K intl weekend (7 markets); $16.1M intl cume (includes non-Uni markets)
The Sisters Brothers (UNI): $300K intl weekend (2 markets); $10M intl cume (includes non-Uni markets)
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (UNI): $300K intl weekend (19 markets); $357.1M intl cume
Mary Queen Of Scots (UNI): $100K intl weekend (7 markets); $29.9M intl cume
*Denotes new
SATURDAY UPDATES: Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Endgame has moved up the offshore chart again, overtaking Avengers: Infinity War as the No. 3 highest grossing movie ever at the international box office. Friday’s overseas take was $88.2M, lifting the running cume to $1.4B. With the domestic Friday included, Endgame has a global total of $1,914.5M as it hammers its way to crossing the $2B mark by the end of today, a feat we noted yesterday would be the case.
Already through Thursday, Endgame became the No. 5 highest grossing global movie of all time, having passed Jurassic World. The next films the assembled Avengers have in their sights on the worldwide chart are Infinity War and Star Wars: The Force Awakens which will likely be toppled through Sunday. Internationally, Endgame is looking to soon dunk Titanic and become the No. 2 film ever overseas.
Not included in the above Friday figures is the Saturday China estimate which is coming in around $21M. That’s a 41% drop from Friday and a 74% drop from last Saturday which was heavily frontloaded. In both cases, the Saturdays fall ahead of a workday Sunday which is intended to make up for the extended holiday period the market had this week. The local cume with Saturday’s estimate is $568.4M. Ticketing platform Maoyan continues to jockey its ultimate projection, today landing on RMB 4.08 ($606M).
This Anthony and Joe Russo-helmed extravaganza has had a fantastic run through its first week, outperforming projections and breaking records along the way. That it topped Infinity War’s entire offshore run in just 10 days is indeed impressive. The conundrum on a lot of minds is now can-it beat Avatar globally.
While it is possible that Endgame is comfortably above $2B worldwide through Sunday, sources are still cautious about calling this MCU pic the all-time champ. It could conceivably need another approximately $600M globally to get there. As we’ve noted previously, we are in uncharted waters with this incredibly anticipated movie. The film has little in its path over the coming frames, although there is a belief that Detective Pikachu could surprise next session, and certainly a lot will depend on how the Endgame midweeks go next week when markets come back down to Earth out of holiday play and the initial rush.
Here are the Top 10 markets through Friday: China ($547.4M/does not include Saturday estimates above), UK ($75.6M), Korea ($68.4M), Mexico ($53.5M), Brazil ($47M), India ($45.7M), Germany ($39.9M), Australia ($39.8M), France ($37.3M) and Japan ($29.8M).
More to come on Sunday.
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I think just simple math & logic should tell anybody that Endgame will not overtake Avatar.
Endgame is still $600 million short of Avatar.
But only another $40 million (max) can be further extracted from China – assuming Maoyan’s figures.
And another $180 million (max) can be further extracted from the U.S. – assuming a final tally of $800 million in the U.S.
So, only another $220 million (max) can be further extracted from the U.S. + China.
Which means an extra $380 million (min) will need to come from outside the U.S. & China i.e. at-least 63.3% of the remaining $600 million will need to come from outside the U.S. & China (simply impossible).
The U.S. + China grosses combined, have so far accounted for 55% of this $2.189 billion dollar total gross & just 45% from the rest of the world.
And so, it’s simply impossible that at this stage that Endgame will get more than 60% of the remaining $600 million, or roughly 2/3rds of the remaining gross, from outside the U.S. & China (especially when Endgame loses its theaters to Pokemon next weekend globally & especially if Pokemon can keep its Rotten Tomatoes score at 60% or higher – currently at 70%).
Even if I magically added another $50 million to $75 million more to the U.S. + China box office tally – the rest of the world would still need to over-index.
So, it’s not really not possible for Endgame to overtake Avatar.
So, all smoke, but no cigar for Endgame – even with 10 years of ticket inflation + a massive China box office + this being the last MCU movie of its kind with the baffling decision to kill-off Iron Man & disband the Avengers.
“Baffling”, unless you’re Kevin Feige who’s possibly in the midst of renewing his Disney contracts after becoming the highest grossing producer of all time in just 11 years – higher than even billionaires like Steven Spielberg & Thomas Tull – and with a far higher success rate than anybody in history.
You can bet Kevin Feige would be demanding a truckload of Disney stock-options for this historic record-breaking streak.
But I don’t think Kevin Feige & Marvel Studios can ever replicate this historic track-record with Downey’s exit & the Avengers cast exit from the MCU and the MCU will likely experience declining grosses, starting with Spider-Man: Far From Home, in July.
And it’s literally a form of cheating to over-inflate a movie’s grosses with China’s box office – just 25% of the box-office profit-share + the lack of ancillaries.
And comparing Avatar’s $200 million from China in 2009 to Endgame’s $600 million from China in 2019 – is like comparing grosses from 2 different universes (& not just 2 different time-periods).
I strongly feel that China’s box-office grosses should be excluded from all final box-office tallies, whether for Avatar or Titanic or Endgame or Infinity War or The Force Awakens or any other movie (unless they qualify as a Chinese co-production like The Meg) – and China’s box-office tallies should instead, just be included as an addendum for reference, separate from the total final box-office tallies (again, unless they qualify as a Chinese co-production like The Meg).
Large gross revenues in a particular market are quite meaningless if they don’t translate to net profits in a particular market – aside from only being a minor psychological comfort for some execs & face-saving marketing for some mediocre & unprofitable movies.
No, China is the 2nd largest film market and most important foreign market for Hollywood. The China market has lead to an increase of jobs and profit for Hollywood. It definitely shouldn’t be excluded.
But you’re applying simple math and logic to a movie that has defied all simple math and logic.
There is no way it should have done 350M domestic in one weekend, when the previous high for a weekend for all movies was 315M…..but it did.
There is no way it should have 1.2B WW in one weekend when the previous high was 640M….but it did.
It’s now done 2.2B in 12 frickin days. That’s just insane. So before you proclaim that it’s not logical for it to pass Avatar, maybe you might want to look at the records it’s broken in record time and wait and see.
180m left domestically? You clearly do not follow movie box office very much or very well. Endgame will make about 200m domestic in the next 14 days on it’s way to around 300m. Topping Avatar is inevitable.
I did leave space for an extra $50 million to $75 million in the above $800 million tally at the domestic box office.
So let’s assume an $875 million final tally in the U.S. (instead of the $800 million final tally above) – or an extra $255 million from the U.S.
And a $613 million final tally in China according to Maoyan – or an extra $40 million from China.
So, $255 million + $40 million = $295 million extra from the U.S. + China.
But even then the rest of the world would have to over-index i.e. well over 50% of the remaining $600 million would have to come from outside the U.S. & China.
55% of the total $2.19 billion was from the U.S. + China – and just the remaining 45% was from the rest of the world – even without any competition during the last 2 weekends.
When Endgame starts losing screens to Pokemon next weekend worldwide (& with Pokemon’s Rotten Tomatoes scores at 70%) – without China from hereon, it’s impossible to beat Avatar (whereas Avatar was not dependent on China).
International wouldn’t have to over index. It just needs to play like it always does compared to domestic. Endgame will easily make more internationally than domestic from here on out.
curious, why another “$180MM max” from US after $145MM weekend? that would be a Batman v Superman like collapse.
I did leave space for an extra $50 million to $75 million in the above $800 million tally at the domestic box office.
So let’s assume an $875 million final tally in the U.S. (instead of the $800 million final tally above) – or an extra $255 million from the U.S.
And a $613 million final tally in China according to Maoyan – or an extra $40 million from China.
So, $255 million + $40 million = $295 million extra from the U.S. + China.
But even then the rest of the world would have to over-index i.e. well over 50% of the remaining $600 million would have to come from outside the U.S. & China.
55% of the total $2.19 billion was from the U.S. + China – and just the remaining 45% was from the rest of the world – even without any competition during the last 2 weekends.
When Endgame starts losing screens to Pokemon next weekend worldwide (& with Pokemon’s Rotten Tomatoes scores at 70%) – without China from hereon, it’s impossible to beat Avatar (whereas Avatar was not dependent on China).
I find it oddly hilarious at people holding on to Gone With the Wind being the highest grossing movie when accounting for inflation. In a landscape where the only option was to catch it at the movies and maybe on TV if you were lucky. Comparative to a landscape where plenty of people will opt to wait until it is on physical home media or digital purchase, Cable TV or on Cable on Demand, or streaming services (most likely only Disney+) and probably more than all of those, people who will opt to steal a free download online. It’s almost a foregone conclusion once all revenue factors are included, it will be well past the gross of GWTW. Gotta love how people like to compare apples to oranges as if comparing box office grosses of the two is a fair metric. In addition. GWTW achieved it’s lofty box office grosses with decades of re-releases.
Thank you so much for this. Facts are facts (that usually don’t exist in comment sections)
I agree with you. Those old movies with the adjusted inflated numbers would not make anywhere near that amount if they we’re released today, that’s a fact.
Apples to apples it hadn’t beat the Titanic the inflation adjusted numbers . Endgame needs 4.2 billion according to IMDb beat Titanic . Gone With The Wind which was released in 1939 is 4.2- 4.8 in today dollars for current all time inflation afjusted.
But it’s not really apples to apples. Gone with the Wind was released at a time when there was no TV, home video or streaming. So in order to see it again, the audience had to see it in the theater. Also, GWTW was re-relased MULTIPLE times over decades…..that’s the main reason the final tickets sold is so high.. The fact is it’s initial release in 1939 was equal about $500 million dollars in today’s inflated adjusted numbers.
So comparing tickets sold and inflation between movies from different eras is ridiculous. Entertainment viewing and options are big factors determining the popularity in final box office.
Hooray for ticket price inflation!!!