Everton at Chelsea: Opposition Analysis | The Dogs of War?

The Blues finally ended their longest winless run of league games for multiple generations a week Saturday, with a narrow but relatively comfortable win over Burnley, at Goodison Park. Three points at this stage of the campaign makes a big difference and was as welcome as it was timely.

With the club being hit immediately after by a further sanction due its continued breaches of the Premier League’s PSR regime - to the tune of a further two-point deduction - the team is still under ample pressure to get results. First up in that quest is a visit to Stamford Bridge tonight, where they’ll face Chelsea.

During a grim inaugural campaign under their new owners, BlueCo, the West London outfit burned through three managers - Thomas Tuchel, Graham Potter and finally - in an interim role - Frank Lampard, en route to a deeply underwhelming 12th place finish. This, despite blowing a quite astonishing, unprecedented amount of money (€543m net) on transforming the squad.

Clearly this was unsatisfactory. In the summer Mauricio Pochettino arrived and was backed further in the transfer market, with a staggering spend of almost €468m. Eye-watering sums were lavished on midfielders Moises Caicedo (€116m) and Romeo Lavia (€62m), RB Leipzig attacker Christopher Nkunku (€60m), Manchester City product Cole Palmer (€47m), Monaco defender Axel Disasi (€45m), Villareal striker Nicolas Jackson (€37m) and Brighton goalkeeper Robert Sanchez (€29m), amongst others.

Part-funding this largesse, the club saw the exodus of a number of established first-teamers. Mason Mount, Kai Havertz, Mateo Kovacic, Edouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly, Christian Pulisic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek all departed — some key figures, some failed signings and others more peripheral. Still, this was a huge churn in the playing squad, following on from a similar influx of additions and the departure of regulars during the previous summer and winter windows.

Clearly, Pochettino was faced with an immense challenge in coalescing such a disparate group of new - or relatively recently arrived - players, into something resembling a cohesive unit, something that had proven beyond Potter. The magnitude of the task facing the experienced Argentine was made clear after the team started the campaign with just a single win from their opening six league games: and that secured over newly-promoted Luton Town.

They stabilized a little over the Autumn, winning half their eight games, notable results including a wild 4-1 win over an (eventually) nine-man Tottenham Hotspur and a 4-4 draw with Man City, but they were also crushed by Newcastle United at St. James’s Park and beaten at home by Brentford. Another mini-slump followed, which saw the Pensioners beaten at Goodison by Everton, but by the end of year things seemed to be turning around. Since, Chelsea have lost just twice from 12 - consecutive defeats by Liverpool and Wolves - against six victories.

Last time out, however the Londoners played very poorly in only drawing with bottom side Sheffield United. They await Everton, while sitting in ninth position in the table, with an outside shot at qualifying for a European competition.

Pochettino has changed things up on occasion, but has generally adhered to a 4-2-3-1 formation. The ex-Spurs boss plays relatively aggressively and on the front foot, an approach that requires intensity and cohesion, neither of which have been consistently apparent this season. They heavily favour the right side - playing through inverted winger Palmer and do not prioritize crossing the ball.

Chelsea command a 59.2% share of possession (ranking sixth) and complete 87.1% of their passes (fourth). Essentially a ball-control team, only 7.9% of their passes go long, as they emphasize a slow build-up in most matches. They generate 14.1 shots per 90 minutes and have underperformed their xG (Expected Goals) metric of 57.7 by a small amount, scoring 55. The Londoners are below average in scoring from counterattacks and set-pieces, but lead the league in penalties converted (ten).

Coordination and structure is key in the way Pochettino wants to play, but an apparent lack of mutual understanding amongst his players has led to the side giving up a relatively high number of shots per 90 (14.1) and conceding 52 times, which ranks eleventh in the dvision. They permit an xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) statistic of only 44.7 (fifth) — so are seriously undeforming in that regard. Chelsea defend set-piece situations fairly well, ranking middle of the pack, and have also conceded an average number of goals from counterattacks (four).

Palmer has been the standout man for Chelsea this term, gelling seamlessly following his arrival and has obviously been a considerable bargain, despite the high fee paid for the relatively unproven youngster last summer. The winger leads the team with both his 16 league strikes and nine assists — though half his goals have come from the penalty spot. He is a very active attacker, generating 5.37 SCA (Shot-Creating Actions) and completing 2.62 passes into the opposition area per 90, both team-highs.

Caicedo has attracted a lot of criticism this term and has looked far from the composed operator he was with Brighton, getting caught in possession more often than a player of his undoubted ability should. Still, he’s been consistently selected by the manager and the 3.65 combined tackles and interceptions, 1.62 blocks he puts in and 5.89 ball recoveries made per 90 shows his value.

Expensive summer signing Sanchez succumbed to injury in December, being replaced by fellow newcomer Dorde Petrovic — a rather more modest acquisition at €14m. Now recovered, Sanchez is a victim of the sickness bug afflicting several members of the squad, so it appears likely the Serb will tend goal again. Petrovic has struggled badly, conceding 27 times from a PSxG (Post-Shot Expected Goals) statistic of 20.9. His save percentage of 63.5 ranks him in the bottom 15th percentile of goalkeepers in top European leagues.

Everton’s win against Burnley at Goodison eased the pressure slightly, but was far from a convincing effort against the second-weakest side in the league. The team’s run-in contains a handful of on-paper routine outings at home against nominally weak opponents, as well as a few tougher contests.

However, until we see the Toffees actually play well in a game, rather than just scoring important goals from random pieces of good fortune, or shocking opposition errors, then it’s tough to make a case that they will beat the likes of Nottingham Forest or Brentford. Mad penalty blunders, such as happened at St. James’s Park, or baffling goalkeeper mistakes - as against Bournemouth and the Clarets - are great to get, but can’t be in place of a repeatable game-winning strategy.

Luton currently trail Everton by two points, having played two more games, but are still fighting hard and have a genuine shot of winning any and all of their remaining five matches. I feel the Hatters will beat the Blues at Kenilworth Road and they could well defeat both the Bees and Fulham on home turf. If that plays out, then Everton could need to pick up another seven points, just to edge them on goal difference.

Hence, the problem I have when examining the Blues schedule: where are the points going to come from? Scanning the games ahead, I am only secure in the team collecting a win over Sheffield United and cannot see anything but defeats to Liverpool, Arsenal and - going off the evidence from the two meetings between the sides - Luton. Unless they show more than has been the case in recent months, I am seeing a return of just six points, which could make things very precarious indeed.

Everton’s record at Stamford Bridge makes for bleak reading. Chelsea are an erratic side, but are not losing many games in the current period and do have a wide assembly of quality players available to them, even if the individual parts have been less than the sum. It’s imperative that the visitors come away with something here. They have to return to the sort of performance levels they were showing earlier in the season, but rarely since: to bring back both intensity and defensive solidity.

Chelsea need to know they are in a game, one which tests their cohesion and willingness to dig deep and pull together as a team. Arriving with a negative attitude, a hope to see out the game and to scurry off back north with a goalless draw will, I fear see the Toffees handily dispatched.

Prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Everton

Stats provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.co.uk and whoscored.com