Excited to share our new paper with @malleshpai @ciamac @Qiaoqiao2001 !
Two prediction markets can have the same price, yet very different uncertainty about where that price may move next. We develop a structural approach to quantifying and forecasting that uncertainty.
The
馃毃New Paper with @Weiye_Xi , @ciamac and @Qiaoqiao2001
Here鈥檚 two different prediction markets priced at ~6.5%:
1. Will the US confirm the existence of Aliens in 2026?
2. *that* Spurs @ Knicks Game 4, ~4th quarter.
They suggest that both these events are the same probability,
