I love formal forecasting exercises (esp those run by @Magoo) because they really force you to slow down consider all the potentially relevant facts, and introspect your biases. FWIW I was 80% here, but I think I was undervaluing the "autopilot" nature of modern CI/CD.
That's what myself and 26 others sought to gather over the weekend. The panel we put together forecasted a 72.8% belief it would happen. Here's the spread of forecasts
magoo.github.io/risk-measureme…
Of the ~950 people I follow on twitter, some hacky profile scraping says that about 60 of those currently have a Mastodon link. So for me that's basically from ~0% to 15% exodus (or at least strongly hedging) in a *week*.